Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 11.120130 12.751349 14.512014 16.550298 18.841512 21.333921 24.246842
2025-05-04 8.607054 10.784305 13.320470 16.479386 20.293875 24.735767 30.283365
2025-05-11 7.212310 9.573048 12.461544 16.230775 20.991448 26.773974 34.295299
2025-05-18 6.259968 8.749562 11.932066 16.258977 21.942639 29.102637 38.745597
2025-05-25 5.597117 8.182337 11.614512 16.447881 23.011828 31.538634 43.361606
2025-06-01 4.987784 7.603943 11.201509 16.434803 23.761850 33.549297 47.481716
2025-06-08 4.437568 7.038236 10.734543 16.276506 24.257736 35.196107 51.145591
2025-06-15 4.056110 6.672171 10.504679 16.411342 25.137836 37.376925 55.611102
2025-06-22 3.817436 6.492679 10.521551 16.887725 26.511887 40.291961 61.219454
2025-06-29 3.447042 6.067520 10.127083 16.706869 26.888355 41.773325 64.817926
2025-07-06 2.983160 5.443483 9.369106 15.901835 26.256344 41.721436 66.139499
2025-07-13 2.825085 5.311069 9.375383 16.286820 27.458472 44.436238 71.672235
2025-07-20 2.656588 5.150012 9.329557 16.595596 28.576602 47.106830 77.313238
2025-07-27 2.429265 4.863278 9.050944 16.499877 29.037674 48.782335 81.500925
2025-08-03 2.203087 4.554349 8.705766 16.259429 29.233300 50.029118 85.045673
2025-08-10 2.042141 4.350526 8.525929 16.284738 29.862379 51.982897 89.780758
2025-08-17 1.920758 4.210032 8.446255 16.474941 30.772235 54.420322 95.382025
2025-08-24 1.781990 4.021151 8.261877 16.461485 31.322677 56.280327 100.104125
2025-08-31 1.637397 3.805614 8.009455 16.303082 31.602456 57.689297 104.122069
2025-09-07 1.541593 3.681470 7.920396 16.438072 32.404480 60.005108 109.737166
2025-09-14 1.492135 3.651112 8.010734 16.915164 33.845366 63.469510 117.426613
2025-09-21 1.374789 3.460844 7.768265 16.734040 34.062564 64.809896 121.509941
2025-09-28 1.205473 3.136108 7.226604 15.927831 33.063231 63.955299 121.728457